The Electric Car Development And Future Of Battery PdfBy Curtis M. In and pdf 19.05.2021 at 04:48 9 min read
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- Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries
- How the balance of power will change the chemistry of an EV future
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- Automotive Li-Ion Batteries: Current Status and Future Perspectives
Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries
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However, uncertainties are large. Key factors are the development of the electric vehicles fleet and battery capacity requirements per vehicle. If other battery chemistries were used at large scale, e. Closed-loop recycling plays a minor, but increasingly important role for reducing primary material demand until , however, advances in recycling are necessary to economically recover battery-grade materials from end-of-life batteries. Second-use of electric vehicles batteries further delays recycling potentials.
Electric vehicles EVs generally have a reduced climate impact compared to internal combustion engine vehicles 1. Together with technological progress and governmental subsidies, this advantage led to a massive increase in the demand for EVs 2. The global fleet of light-duty EVs grew from a few thousand just a decade ago to 7. Yet, the global average market penetration of EVs is still just around 1.
Typical automotive LIBs contain lithium Li , cobalt Co , and nickel Ni in the cathode, graphite in the anode, as well as aluminum and copper in other cell and pack components. Commonly used LIB cathode chemistries are lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide NCM , lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide NCA , or lithium iron phosphate LFP , although battery technology is currently evolving fast and new and improved chemistries can be expected in the future 2 , 4.
Due to the fast growth of the EV market, concerns over the sustainable supply of battery materials have been voiced. These include supply risks due to high geopolitical concentrations of cobalt 5 , 6 and social and environmental impacts associated with mining 7 , 8 , as well as the availability of cobalt and lithium reserves 9 and the required rapid upscaling of supply chains to meet expected demand 5.
Understanding the magnitude of future demand for EV battery raw materials is essential to guide strategic decisions in policy and industry and to assess potential supply risks as well as social and environmental impacts. Several studies have quantified the future demand for EV battery materials for specific world regions such as Europe 10 , the United States 11 , 12 , and China 13 , or for specific battery materials only 14 , 15 , Weil et al.
However, their model does not investigate the influence of battery chemistry developments e. Here, we go beyond previous studies by developing comprehensive global scenarios for the development of the EV fleet, battery technology including potentially game changing chemistries such as Li-S and Li-Air as well as recycling and second-use of EV batteries.
We assess the global material demand for light-duty EV batteries for Li, Ni, and Co, as well as for manganese Mn , aluminum Al , copper Cu , graphite, and silicon Si for model details, see Supplementary Fig. We also relate material demands to current production capacities and known reserves and discuss key factors for reducing material requirements.
The results presented are intended to inform the ongoing discussion on the transition to electric vehicles by providing a better understanding of future battery material demand and the key factors driving it. This is in-line with other projections, see Supplementary Fig. In the SD scenario, the EV stock will increase by a factor of from — to 2 billion vehicles and annual EV sales will rise to million vehicles Supplementary Fig. The material requirements depend on the choice of battery chemistries used.
Three battery chemistry scenarios are considered see Fig. See Supplementary Fig. Advantages of LFPs are lower production costs due to the abundance of precursor materials, safety due to better thermal stability, and longer cycle life While LFP batteries have seen their main application in commercial vehicles, such as buses, there are prospects of a more widespread use of LFPs in light-duty EVs e.
Although Li-S and Li-Air batteries are still in early development and considerable challenges remain to be solved before commercialization, e. It can be observed that higher EV deployments in the SD scenario lead to 1.
From to in the more conservative STEP scenario, Li demand would rise by a factor of 17—21 from 0. Note that the demand increase for Co is smaller than for Ni due to the assumed partial replacement of Co by Ni in future NCM batteries. It ranges from 7. The cumulative demand is twice as high in the SD scenario, and 2—2. The black line represents known reserves The recovery of these materials could help to reduce primary material production 14 , Current commercial recycling technologies for EV batteries include pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical processing Pyrometallurgical recycling involves smelting entire batteries or, after pretreatment, battery components.
Hydrometallurgical processing involves acid leaching and subsequent recovery of battery materials, e. In closed-loop recycling, pyrometallurgical processing is followed by hydrometallurgical processing to convert the alloy into metal salts, as illustrated in Fig. Direct recycling aims at recovering cathode materials while maintaining their chemical structures, which could be economically and environmentally advantageous 28 ; however, it is currently still in early development stages In order to quantify recycling potentials, we consider three potential recycling scenarios: pyrometallurgical, hydrometallurgical, and direct recycling for NCX and LFP batteries as well as mechanical recycling for Li-S and Li-Air batteries.
They differ in recovered materials and associated chemical forms see methods and summary in Fig. In reality not all materials go through all processing steps. For example, pyrometallurgical recycling smelting still requires hydrometallurgical processing leaching before cathode materials can be produced, while direct recycling is designed to recover cathode materials directly. In pyro- and hydrometallurgical recycling the recovery of Li may not be economical and in pyrometallurgical recycling graphite is incinerated and Al not recovered from the slag see also methods.
We also consider the potential second-use of EoL EV batteries. The exact second-use application, the battery state-of-health, battery chemistry, and other factors determine, if and for how long second-use is possible. Considering additional material losses, e. The most important reason for this is the fast growth of the EV market and the time lag between the need for materials and the availability of EoL material. It should be noted that in a steady-state system, i. Although this is technically feasible, it is unlikely to be cost competitive with primary lithium metal production from brine, which does not require the intermediate compounds production step and may work with lower-purity feedstock Gray dots show how second-use, which postpones the time of recycling, reduces the closed-loop recycling potentials and thus the availability of secondary materials in the coming decades.
If a significant share of batteries experience a second-use, the recovery of that material will be delayed in time and thus the CLRP will be substantially lower for the decades to come shown by the dashed lines in Fig. Given the magnitude of the battery material demand growth across all scenarios, global production capacity for Li, Co, and Ni black lines in Fig.
For Li and Co, demand could outgrow current production capacities even before For Ni, the situation appears to be less dramatic, although by EV batteries alone could consume as much as the global primary Ni production in The known reserves for Li, Ni, and Co black lines in Fig. In contrast to Li and Ni, Co reserves are also geographically more concentrated and partly in conflict areas 35 , thus increasing potential supply risks 5.
Battery manufacturers are already seeking to decrease their reliance on cobalt, e. Shortages could also occur at a regional level, such as the access to Li and Ni for Europe Obviously, it is possible that the outlined supply risks change, e. According to our model, lithium demand for EV batteries in 0. For cobalt our estimations 0. For nickel our estimations 1. There are thus notable uncertainties concerning the primary material demand for EV materials related to several key factors that could be strategically addressed to mitigate supply risks.
Probably the most important factor is the future required battery capacity. A sensitivity analysis is shown in Fig. While it is unlikely that the global average EV battery capacity will be close to either end of this range, this analysis illustrates the high importance of this factor.
The demand for battery capacity depends on technical factors, such as vehicle design, vehicle weight, and fuel efficiency 38 , and perhaps even more importantly, on socio-economic factors, such as the future EV fleet size see also Fig. Opportunities lie in the development of battery technology. As shown here, Li-S and Li-Air batteries would reduce the dependency on Co, and Ni, while offering higher energy densities.
Our analysis assumes conservative, i. It is also uncertain whether the lifespans assumed here will be reached in practice, especially for Li-S and Li-Air batteries 2. On the other hand, batteries in a state-of-health that would typically be considered to mark their EoL i. Truly circular EV batteries will not be available anytime soon.
Over the next decades we first need to produce the EV battery stock for a large fleet, mostly from primary materials. Closed-loop recycling will gain importance, depending on EV fleet and battery chemistry developments, second-use, and other factors, such as standardization 42 , legislation, business models 43 , eco-design or design for recycling 44 , collection systems, and recycling technology 26 , The difference between the recycling technologies is not so much in the recycling efficiency for individual materials, but whether materials are recovered and in what chemical form and purity 9 , All recovered battery materials can, in principle, be refined to battery-grade.
For example, in the pyrometallurgical process, lithium ends up in the slag, while in the hydrometallurgical process, lithium ends up in the solid waste from the leaching step. Both slag and solid waste could be refined to produce battery-grade lithium carbonate; however, lithium has hardly been recovered so far as the lithium price did not enable a cost-effective recovery 9 , Challenges for direct recycling include the development of sorting processes that can separate cathode powder from different battery chemistries, relithiation and upgrading processes for cathode chemistries that have become obsolete and further standardization of batteries to support effective recycling The success of the transition to electric vehicles will depend partly on whether the material supply can keep up with the growth of the sector in a sustainable way and without damaging the reputation of EVs.
The global demand scenarios presented here also provide a basis to assess the global economic, environmental, and social impacts related to EVs and batteries from a lifecycle perspective. We develop a dynamic material flow analysis MFA model, which is a frequently used approach to analyze material stocks and flows It consists of an EV layer, a battery layer, and a material layer, and considers key technical and socio-economic parameters in three layers Supplementary Fig.
The EV layer models the future EV stock fleet development until as well as required battery capacity. The battery layer considers future battery chemistry developments and market shares. The material layer models material compositions of battery chemistries using the BatPaC model The fate of EoL batteries is modelled considering three recycling scenarios and a second-use scenario and these determine the material availability for closed-loop recycling.
The model layers and parameters are described in the following.
How the balance of power will change the chemistry of an EV future
Advances in Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles provides an in-depth look into the research being conducted on the development of more efficient batteries capable of long distance travel. The text contains an introductory section on the market for battery and hybrid electric vehicles, then thoroughly presents the latest on lithium-ion battery technology. Readers will find sections on battery pack design and management, a discussion of the infrastructure required for the creation of a battery powered transport network, and coverage of the issues involved with end-of-life management for these types of batteries. Andrews in Scotland and from the Chalmers University in Sweden. In his academic career the focus was on material research. His experience includes also fuel cells mainly low temperature FCs and supercaps. His interest in battery safety goes back to the work with the very large battery safety testing center of the ZSW.
This guide takes you through an overview of how to cool lithium-ion battery packs and evaluates which battery cooling system is the most effective on the market. While advancements have been made in electric vehicle batteries that allow them to deliver more power and require less frequent charges, one of the biggest challenges that remain for battery safety is the ability to design an effective cooling system. Batteries work based on the principle of a voltage differential, and at high temperatures, the electrons inside become excited which decreases the difference in voltage between the two sides of the battery. Because batteries are only manufactured to work between certain temperature extremes, they will stop working if there is no cooling system to keep it in a working range. Cooling systems need to be able to keep the battery pack in the temperature range of about degrees Celsius, as well as keep the temperature difference within the battery pack to a minimum no more than 5 degrees Celsius. Potential thermal stability issues, such as capacity degradation, thermal runaway, and fire explosion, could occur if the battery overheats or if there is non-uniform temperature distribution in the battery pack. In the face of life-threatening safety issues, innovation is continually happening in the electric vehicle industry to improve the battery cooling system.
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A battery electric vehicle BEV , pure electric vehicle , only-electric vehicle or all-electric vehicle is a type of electric vehicle EV that exclusively uses chemical energy stored in rechargeable battery packs , with no secondary source of propulsion e. BEVs use electric motors and motor controllers instead of internal combustion engines ICEs for propulsion. They derive all power from battery packs and thus have no internal combustion engine, fuel cell , or fuel tank. BEVs include — but are not limited to   — motorcycles, bicycles, scooters, skateboards, railcars, watercraft, forklifts, buses, trucks, and cars.
However, the environmental impacts of a large scale introduction of electric vehicles are still unknown. This project has developed scenarios for the increased dissemination of electric vehicles in the EU until and formulated policy recommendations from these findings. The full report of this project is available for download. In order to reach the long-term EU climate goals, a severe reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector will be necessary.
The era of electric vehicles EVs is in sight, and batteries are poised to become a leading power source for mobility. To capture market share and economies of scale, battery cell producers are adding massive amounts of production capacity. To survive in this challenging market, producers will need to slash prices to fully use their capacity; even manufacturers of battery cells with innovative features will not be exempt. To preserve their margins while cutting prices, producers will need to reduce their manufacturing costs.
An electric vehicle EV is a vehicle that uses one or more electric motors or traction motors for propulsion. An electric vehicle may be powered through a collector system by electricity from off-vehicle sources, or may be self-contained with a battery , solar panels , fuel cells or an electric generator to convert fuel to electricity. EVs first came into existence in the midth century, when electricity was among the preferred methods for motor vehicle propulsion, providing a level of comfort and ease of operation that could not be achieved by the gasoline cars of the time.
Automotive Li-Ion Batteries: Current Status and Future Perspectives
This book surveys state-of-the-art research on and developments in lithium-ion batteries for hybrid and electric vehicles. It summarizes their features in terms of performance, cost, service life, management, charging facilities, and safety. Vehicle electrification is now commonly accepted as a means of reducing fossil-fuels consumption and air pollution. At present, every electric vehicle on the road is powered by a lithium-ion battery. Currently, batteries based on lithium-ion technology are ranked first in terms of performance, reliability and safety. Though other systems, e. Gianfranco Pistoia, Ph.
Lithium-ion batteries LIBs are currently the most suitable energy storage device for powering electric vehicles EVs owing to their attractive properties including high energy efficiency, lack of memory effect, long cycle life, high energy density and high power density. These advantages allow them to be smaller and lighter than other conventional rechargeable batteries such as lead—acid batteries, nickel—cadmium batteries Ni—Cd and nickel—metal hydride batteries Ni—MH. Modern EVs, however, still suffer from performance barriers range, charging rate, lifetime, etc.
Electric vehicles (EVs) were first demonstrated in [1,2] with the first A summary of some present and future electrode chemistry options for Li-ion First developed by Sony in , the lithium cobalt oxide battery has com/timesmachine//01/22/pdf (accessed on 11 February ).
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